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Spatial and Temporal Modelling

The concept and practice of Spatial and Temporal Modelling (STeM) is still in its infancy, however, the important role it plays in local Net Zero strategic planning is clear.

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What is meant by Spatial and Temporal Modelling and why is it important?

The concept and practice of Spatial and Temporal Modelling (STeM) is still in its infancy, however, the important role it plays in local Net Zero strategic planning is clear.

Spatial and Temporal Modelling (STeM) is a spatial, data-driven modelling methodology with fixed targets (e.g. Net Zero by 2045), which allows its user to explore a range of credible pathways (e.g. energy decarbonisation) over a chosen period of time. Furthermore, it must be able to be updated to reflect local reality (e.g. a change of policy direction, updates to the grid etc). The four main attributes are laid out below:

Many local authorities are already using elements of Spatial and Temporal Modelling, particularly Geographical Information System (GIS) skills, to inform and support their Strategic Net Zero Planning. However, many local authorities also face barriers when implementing Spatial and Temporal Modelling. 

These include, but are not exclusive to: 

  • the understanding of what Spatial and Temporal Modelling is
  • funding uncertainty
  • lack of capacity or capability
  • ease of refresh/dynamic use of the Spatial and Temporal Modelling tool
  • lack of consistency of input data
  • differing levels of access to tools; different levels of appetite across local authorities.

The purpose of this report is for the North East and Yorkshire Net Zero Hub and Energy Systems Catapult to identify the tools, data and skills required at local level to ensure Net Zero strategic planning has maximum impact.

Having a plan and delivering projects are not mutually exclusive; they can influence and inform each other. There is value in proactively using STeM capabilities to develop plans and proposals, as in some cases funding can then follow.

There is demonstrable value in local Spatial and Temporal Modelling

There is significant literature published on the value of local view for strategic Net Zero planning that shows that whole system local area planning is the most robust, economic, and can provide greater social value than top-down approaches. However, not all STeM tools serve the same use cases. Pathway models are more capable of providing confident evidence for funding and longer-term strategic plans. Whereas visualisation models are more suited to inform project delivery.

Developing plans and funding are linked and STeM tools can support this

Having a plan and delivering projects are not mutually exclusive; they can influence and inform each other. There is value in proactively using STeM capabilities to develop plans and proposals, as in some cases funding can then follow.

Local authorities have different levels of capability, but there are quick-wins

Today there are significant limitations with local authorities’ resources. However, there are elements of STeM functionality that could be broadly applicable and add value, and it will help authorities to develop and deliver project. There is a need to think about levelling of assets and skills (What might be suitable for a local authority, combined authority, and Net Zero Hub)

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